EAC-PM Member Shamika Ravi Reacts to Asaduddin Owaisi's Claims on Hindus Declining Report

New Delhi: The latest report by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) on the majority population, including Hindus, on a decline has led to a controversy nationwide. Dr Shamika Ravi, Economist, Member, EAC-PM and Author of the latest EAC-PM report on population, spoke to Republic Media Network Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami on the report showing a decline in Hindu population and an increase in the Muslim minority population from 1950 to 2015.

When Arnab Goswami asked Shamika if she was expecting this kind of public and trending conversation around the EAC-PM report, Shamika Ravi replied, “I don’t think anyone is surprised with these numbers…maybe the numbers may be new, but the levels and broadly what the changes are, it’s not new at all. I think it is the election season perhaps that is making it so exciting. But frankly, these are long-term changes, most economists are familiar with.”

Arnab asked whether a 7.8% decline is a steep fall for any community around the world, and would it mean that around 10 crore or 100 million Hindus are less now as compared to the post-Independence era.

“These are shares, so in absolute terms, because for every religion, the population is always expanding…we have had a major expansion in the size of every demographic in every religious group. It is the relative share of each religious group and that too, minorities, which becomes an interesting phenomenon,” said Shamika.

The economist went on to elaborate, “What India is following or the experience that India has had over the last 65 years is akin to most Western, liberal, plural democracies, where the share of the majority has gone down and the minority has gone up, contrary to countries of the region. So our neighbourhood, we are quite unique,” said Shamika Ravi. 

“In India, we have had the second largest decline in the majority population, which is about 7.82 per cent - therefore a commensurate increase in the minority as a group. All other countries in the neighbourhood - Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Afghanistan - have all had an alarming decline in the proportion of the share of minorities. In that sense, there is a novelty to this research,” explained Shamika Ravi.

On Asaduddin Owaisi’s claims of ‘WhatsApp University’ report on the population

Arnab went on to ask Shamika on her reaction to All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi’s claims of the EAC-PM report being from ‘WhatsApp University’, meaning it was fictitious.

To which, Shamika replied, “It’s a report by three researchers using publicly available data. I’m a little surprised it has surprised people. I’m also surprised that it has taken us time to do analysis on things which are so obvious and that we should be doing on a routine basis.”

‘India should regularly measure population’

The eminent economist went on to explain that India is one of the few countries that have a dedicated ministry for minorities, and therefore a study is incumbent. 

“There are very few countries that actually define minorities or are interested in the protection of minorities. But India has followed these UN (United Nations) norms, these progressive, modern norms. In fact, we are one of the very few countries that have a dedicated ministry for minorities. Now, given the kind of policy priority minority welfare has, given the kind of resources that are spent, don’t we want to assess what the outcomes are? So, why is it that we are not measuring these realities on the ground? In fact, this should become a regular, routine exercise. It should really not be left to interest. And that is what it is.”

What is the finding on the plight of Muslims of India?

Arnab sought Shamika’s opinion on whether the plight of Muslims should also be measured. People may say that the EAC-PM has a vested interest in the report. Is it a stilted perspective?

“We do have other studies that have looked at availability of amenities, even development indicators across religious and social groups, etc. So, what you’re calling ‘plight’, I think we have to put an objective variable, which can be measured. The condition of most minority groups has improved dramatically,” said Shamika.

She added, “Now, Why don’t we look at the share of the minority population? It’s the final outcome metric. In a discriminatory environment, when you have not just policies but generally a community or a society, which is leading to the plight of any one group or another, or minorities in general, (then) you’re not going to see a significant increase in population. As is the case in many countries, and particularly in our neighbourhood.”

“So, it’s a very good composite metric. It’s a very good variable,” Shamika further elaborated, adding, “Just like, if you have a very skewed sex ratio, we know that women are being discriminated against. So, I think that there is a scientific basis to say that these are objective measures and we must look at it.”

What are the drivers of change in population share?

Shamika Ravi spoke about an important point to be looked at in this scenario. “But one important point to make is that, we are not looking at drivers of this change, as to what is leading to the changes in share of population will not just include fertility rates and birth rates... It’s the difference in the rates that will eventually determine the share.” Shamika added that it is a very sophisticated point that is important for people to understand.

Is Conversion the reason for decline in Hindu population in India?

Shamika spoke about factors like migration and conversion in population change. She explained, “But also migration - illegal or illegal - and then conversion. You see, in Europe, most countries have seen a decline in majority religion on account of mass migration. But in Africa, 24 countries used to have Animism as the majority religion. In 65 years, none of these 24 countries have Animism as the majority religion. So, now we are not talking of birth rate or migration, we are talking conversion. And obviously, it is a combination of all these factors that is leading to the final outcome. This paper (the EAC-PM report) is the first step to put out objectively, Step Number 1. Now we need to look more into the details.”

The EAM-PC said on X about the report, “India has seen the second most significant decline in the majority population (7.82%), only next to Myanmar (10%) within the immediate South Asian neighbourhood. Minority populations have shrunk substantially in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan.”